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商場
商品訊息功能:
商品訊息描述: 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商品訊息簡述: #UTF8#
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工商時報【國票投顧總經理王博文】
國內外市場分析：
即使基本面困境看似難解，但先前各國官方的寬鬆政策挹注，大量資金仍於各金融商品間流動，尤其升息預期推延，亞洲成為熱錢避風港，台股亦受惠外資加碼而一度重登8700點。不過，國際風險尚未完全解除，尤其英國公投吉凶未卜，避險情緒增溫導致國際股市重挫，台股於連假後也難逃倖免，近年唯一不變的真理為熱錢來去快速，在受熱錢推升向上的同時，又將再次面臨其出走的市場風險，短線指數表現仍需看國際金融市場的臉色。
美國5月就業報告意外低於預期，Fed主席隨即暗示6月升息機率偏低，加以考量脫歐變數尚未移除，市場普遍預測7月升息將較為合理，建議留心分析今晨甫公布的FOMC會後聲明。時序越近6/23的英國脫歐公投，市場也越形焦慮，民調數據搖擺不定更導致避險情緒升溫，熱錢逃進公債市場，股市與油價同步重挫，預料即便脫歐公投結果正向，其慶祝行情亦為時不久，尤其先前觀望氣氛濃厚已影響歐元區基本面，後續成長也難樂觀。
日本延後提高消費稅亦顯示其基本面疲弱，而中國不論是進口或出口表現，年成長率皆大幅落後過往表現，加上世銀再次調降2016年全球GDP成長預估，皆突顯出全球需求未有明確的復甦。在基本面疲軟的情況下，金融市場的表現仍是依靠寬鬆貨幣的挹注，短時間恐怕還是難以脫離壞（經濟）消息依舊是好（金融）消息的非正常狀態。
美國升息與英國脫歐等不確定風險升溫，資金也出現流出亞洲市場的跡象，台股也在空方的突襲下，以中長黑K摜破兩條短均與兩道整數關卡，不僅造成一道空方的缺口，原來維繫攻勢的短均，亦成為上檔反壓。
因此，儘管指數重挫後仍出現反彈，但反攻量能有限，短線或僅具止跌的可能，盤勢恐需時間進行調整，且不排除將回防季線以尋求支撐。
所幸下方中長期均線維持走揚，大盤應該具備維持高檔整理的機率。有鑑於國際情勢尚未明朗，一旦市場氛圍再趨悲觀，恐怕再度引發高檔調節的賣壓，因此，建議多加留意外資籌碼動向。
台股操作建議：
國內迎來股東會旺季，經營階層若可釋放利多，或有望推升除權息前介紹的股價表現。不過，在面臨英美不確定性之際，陸股亦未能納入MSCI指數，加上我國出口連16黑，季底央行降息或屬必要，加上自然人亦有為降低稅務負擔而出現棄權息的可能，皆使外資有自亞洲市場撤退的藉口，預估台股盤勢或有震盪加劇的風險。
所幸，後續隨淡季進入尾聲，產業旺季將至，有助企業營運走揚，資金將尋找最適當的投資機會，預期短期電子族群仍將以個股題材表現為主，尤其是外資做多的個股，建議可從晶圓代工、光學鏡頭、STB、網通、光通訊與電競等族群中找尋。
傳產方面，則建議以中小型股為重點，汽車塑化與鋼鐵逢低可以尋找切入點，醫材與油價相關概念也可多做著墨。
下面附上展覽出清價一則新聞讓大家了解時事
海軍陸戰隊舉辦結訓考驗，過程較為嚴苛，學員須通過「天堂路」，始能成為合格的兩棲蛙人，一向視為兩棲蛙人最榮耀標誌。有位女立委心存慈悲善念，質詢時痛批蛙人受訓流鼻血會影響募兵制的推動。結果引發強烈反彈，咸認這位女立委太缺乏軍事常識，如果不嚴格訓練，上了戰場才真會流血。
嚴格說，當兵本來就是很辛苦的，任何軍種都有一套標準的訓練制度，也唯有這樣，方能培訓出堅定的戰鬥精神，面對外來勢力侵犯時，展現出果決的制?力量。現在是新政府執政時代，必然會面臨一些新的威脅和新的挑戰，內政固然重要，國防更不容忽視，加強軍事訓練，增添國防設施，應為衛國保民的核心取向。
蔡英文總統的五二○演說，各方反應頗佳，大陸卻視為「一份沒有完成的答卷」，大陸涉台學者挑明的講，兩岸先洽和，不急著翻臉，重點在看她是否只是說得很好聽，但任由官員搞出中國化。其實，我們對於對方文攻武嚇，習以為常，至於將來會有什麼變化，目前尚言之過早，誠如美國學者葛萊儀所說：「中國對蔡英文提出的說法並不滿意，但也沒有拉警報。」我們希望雙方多往好的方面去想，把心結化解掉，別為「九二共識」四個字又鬧得不歡而散。
中共堅決「反台獨」，不給台任何彈性空間，獨派聲浪仍在，恐怕難有施展機會。國防部長馮世寬對「台獨」態度模稜兩可，是很危險訊號；前國防部長郝柏村語重心長表示：「搞台獨，中共一定打。」所以，兩岸動武不是不可能，我們應該充實軍事裝備與設施，美方一直想軍售台灣，我們不妨承其好意，做好嚴密的國防部署，兵法常言：「不謀萬事者，不足謀一時；不謀全局者，不足謀一城。」兩岸動武，必定兩敗俱傷，依目前情況觀察，台灣還是先把內政和經濟搞好，再考慮其他問題較為穩妥。
新政府應該帶來新氣象和新願景，在軍中興革方面也應該與時俱進，老兵批評得沒錯：「反中恐中又怕操兵，難道用嘴砲打中共？」因此，鼓舞士氣，激發戰鬥精神，加強軍事訓練，整飭軍隊紀綱，都是迫不及待的滿額免運嚴肅課題。國軍近來有點失常，老出問題，民眾不能有看熱鬧心態，要發揮「民敬軍，軍愛民」的共存共榮意識。
我們不怕戰爭，只是我們基本態度是維護全人類和平與安全，因為戰爭徒然使生靈塗炭，萬劫不復，當年披頭四一曲「給和平一個機會」能夠瘋靡全球，主要是唱出了人類心聲，表達出人類嚮往自由安定的太平日子。所以，我們加強國防建設，其目的不在侵略別人，而是增強自衛實力。
新政府的南向政策和親美思維，都阻礙了兩岸溝通管道。美國駐北京前大使芮效儉點出：台海兩岸目前沒有立即的危機，但可能陷入僵局，這個僵局可能對未來雙邊關係產生重大影響。兩岸確實隱藏著不定時的爆裂物，不能不謹慎處理，國台辦主任張志軍揚言：「背離一中，兩岸關係就會出事。」為維護台海和平安定，宜有萬全措施。
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